The mid-range quarterback market has blown-up, but why?

 Last week, Kirk Cousins left the Minnesota Vikings and struck up a 4 year, 180 million dollar deal with the Atlanta Falcons. 45 million dollars a year for a quarterback who has won one playoff game his entire NFL career. 

Whether you’re a Kirk Cousins fan or not, everyone can agree the number is absolutely absurd. In just a few years, the NFL quarterback market has exploded to extreme heights, a trend that doesn’t seem on the verge of ending anytime soon. 

Welcome to the era where mid-range quarterbacks are rapidly rising in value.

For years, the NFL has been enamored with the idea of the superstar quarterback – the guy who can single-handedly change the course of a game. And while there's no denying the impact these players have, the league is beginning to appreciate the virtues of a different archetype – the mid-range quarterback.

Rewind a decade, and we see this class of middle-tier, franchise quarterback but yet to be a superstar type, not be paid even close to the value that the same kind of player is demanding now. Back then, the main contenders were Mark Sanchez, Jay Cutler, and Tony Romo– all of which had to negotiate with a much lower salary cap, spread out value, and the reluctance of teams to ink quarterbacks to long term deals. 

With the exception of the 2020 COVID season, which was an unusual anomaly in an otherwise quickly expanding league, the salary cap has grown yearly. More money to spend on players is the result. This same tendency may also be observed in the wide receiver market, as Jacksonville paid Christian Kirk $72 million over four years. 

Now Kirk Cousins surely won’t win any MVP’s, however, he has shown that teams can do well with him under center. Cousins is a prime example of how the value of quarterbacks has increased; in a sport that has grown to accustom the passing game more than anything else, the usefulness of a solid quarterback has grown. Hence why teams are much more willing to pay big money in order to keep a pass-thrower around rather than looking for cheaper alternatives.

Take for instance quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill during his time with the Tennessee Titans. He may not be mentioned in the same breath as Brady or Mahomes, but he’s proven to be indispensable for his team. Tannehill's ability to manage games efficiently and deliver in crucial moments propelled the Titans to success.

Teams have finally started to understand that while drafting young quarterbacks may be cheaper and more enticing, training them is the seemingly more difficult part. Especially coming from college, schemes are different, quarterbacks are more raw, and it’s a shot in the dark whether they’ll be good or a flop. The Jets experienced this first hand with Zach Wilson– all signs pointed to him being a decent quarterback coming out of BYU only for him to be one of the biggest draft busts in New York history. 

Game speed is much faster than in college football, reads are different, schemes get more intense. So, if a good veteran quarterback has proven to be good through a trial by fire, he's worth keeping around.

The value of a QB has also been blown up by the fact that other positions have seen a loss in valuation just as a matter of how the game has evolved. Positions like running backs and defensive lineman have seen their pay cut, due to the stray away from a run-focused offensive sport to more of a pass heavy game. The combination of the two have propelled quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson– in my opinion mid-tier players, to demand $30-40 million a year.  

NFL teams have shown that they are willing to cut off some important pieces in order to succumb to a quarterback’s demands. In 2022, the Chiefs let go of Tyreek Hill and Melvin Ingram in order to pay rising legend Patrick Mahomes, a move that paid off with back-to-back  Super Bowl wins. 

Forbes made an interesting point, relating the NFL QB market to a universal one.

“It’s hopefully a reminder of a simple truth that in any market economy, a rising price logically signals a falling price elsewhere,” Forbes’ John Tamny wrote. “That is so because our resources as individual consumers aren’t unlimited. Tradeoffs once again. The NFL is no different. Though spending per team is as previously mentioned capped, even NFL teams face tradeoffs. And as the value of the quarterback position grows and grows, this reality is felt through reduced valuation of other positions. Rising prices aren’t necessarily “inflationary” as the tradeoffs made by NFL teams and individual consumers hopefully indicates.” 

In essence, the rise of mid-range quarterbacks in the NFL represents an odd but interesting shift in how the position is perceived and valued today. So although their pay grade is out of this world, their consistency makes them important assets in today's game. 

As the NFL continues to evolve, their stock is only set to rise further. In a couple years, the base salaries of even the average quarterbacks is bound to increase to a level which is hard to fathom.